Eli Lilly's stock tumbles 15% in 2026 despite strong revenue forecasts

Eli Lilly's stock has faced a sharp decline in early 2026, dropping around 15% since January. The fall comes despite the company's strong revenue forecasts and upcoming regulatory decisions on key drugs. Analysts at HSBC have also raised concerns about overhyped expectations for weight-loss medications. Lilly's share price fell from a peak of $1,133.04 in early January to between $917 and $999 by March. During the same period, the S&P 500 saw only a modest gain of 0.37% on individual trading days. The decline prompted HSBC to downgrade Lilly's stock to Reduce on March 17, cutting its price target from $1,070 to $850.

The company's 2026 revenue is projected at $80 to $83 billion, marking a 25% increase from the previous year. However, HSBC suggests that market expectations for weight-loss drugs—estimated at $80 to $120 billion by 2032—may be exaggerated.

On the drug development front, Lilly awaits an FDA decision on its oral GLP-1 candidate, orforglipron, due on April 10, 2026. Meanwhile, new data on retatrutide, another key drug, will be presented in June 2026 at the American Diabetes Association's conference. Early results show retatrutide reduced HbA1c levels by 1.7 to 2.0 percentage points in type 2 diabetes patients over 40 weeks, though this was slightly less effective than Mounjaro (tirzepatide). Patients on the highest dose (12 mg) lost an average of 16.8 kilograms.

Seven additional Phase 3 trials for retatrutide, covering obesity, sleep apnoea, and cardiovascular outcomes, are expected later this year. Lilly's stock performance has weakened in 2026, contrasting with its ambitious revenue growth targets. The FDA's upcoming decision on orforglipron and further retatrutide trial results will likely shape investor confidence in the months ahead. The company's next steps will depend on regulatory outcomes and market reactions to new clinical data.