UK in 'de facto war' with Russia as Arctic tensions escalate, warns defence expert

Graeme Downie, who chairs the All Party Parliamentary Group on Estonia and whose constituency is home to Rosyth dockyard and HMS Caledonia, told the committee that the UK should consider itself to be in a conflict with Russia and that the High North and the GIUK gap should be treated as the country's physical frontline, warning that delay is not defence and that the UK had not yet matched its strategic ambitions with the funded plans needed to deliver them.

On Type 31 frigates, Downie said the government should consider increasing orders for more of the vessels, describing them as cheaper and quicker to build and adaptable over their lifetime to fulfil different roles, saying this could be "particularly critical for the future hybrid navy envisaged in the SDR and emphasised by the Royal Navy." He noted that it was not yet determined what role the five Type 31 frigates on order would play, with the flexibility of the platform being key, but argued that with an increased maritime role required in the High North, expanding the programme made strategic sense.

On east coast basing, Downie argued for greater use of assets such as Rosyth and DM Crombie to improve response times, resupply and deterrence posture into the GIUK gap and northern waters, saying this was how the UK could "shorten our logistics tail, reinforce allies at speed, and make presence in the High North continuous rather than episodic."

Downie described the protection of subsea cables and offshore energy infrastructure as "the central test of our staying power in the region" and said there was a growing pattern of hostile behaviours around the UK's cable routes and energy installations that demanded investment in seabed monitoring, resilient routing and hard power capacity to deter threats around the northern approaches, saying these were "defence tasks, not merely regulatory ones."

On the threat picture, Downie drew on discussions with senior Estonian officials in his capacity as APPG chair, saying their view was unequivocal that northern European security was indivisible and that UK leadership in the JEF and NATO was indispensable. He said Estonian counterparts had told him that even a peace settlement in Ukraine would not stop Russian aggression but would simply redirect it, likely towards the Arctic and North Atlantic where Russian strategic priorities lie, adding that "when they offer advice, we should listen."

Downie also cited the deployment of HMS Dragon to Cyprus following the drone attack on RAF Akrotiri as evidence of the strain on UK readiness, saying it demonstrated the limits of the UK's ability to transfer capability rapidly between theatres and that the lack of viable support ships reduced operational flexibility and forced the country into piecemeal reactive deployments rather than coherent force projection. He warned that attempting to service multiple disparate theatres simultaneously would stretch already pressured readiness further, and argued the UK needed to concentrate on the High North as the theatre where its geography, vulnerabilities and adversaries' intentions intersected most sharply.

On the question of allied cooperation, Downie said there was uncertainty among close allies about what the threshold for direct UK military involvement would be short of a clear Article 5 breach, and said this must be made clear, citing the risk that hybrid activity against subsea infrastructure might not trigger a NATO response, asking who energy industry leaders should call if a Russian submarine appeared next to one of their installations and saying the government must have a credible answer.

The MP also raised the Arctic's strategic importance for critical minerals, noting that China currently controlled 70 per cent of rare earth mining and 90 per cent of processing, and that the Arctic presented a once-in-a-generation opportunity for the West to reduce its dependence on China through coordinated long-term investment, provided it was done responsibly and in line with Western values rather than by replicating the approach of adversaries.

He concluded that the UK had the talent, allies and industrial base to lead in the High North but that leadership required urgency, clarity and action, warning that "delay is not defence."