Belarus' Homyel Region Faces Collapse as Birth Rates Plummet by 2026

The Homyel region in Belarus is facing a severe demographic crisis. By 2026, birth rates are expected to drop to just 6.3 per 1,000 people—nearly half of what they were eight years earlier. This sharp decline follows years of falling fertility and rising population loss across the area. In 2017, Gomel Oblast recorded 15,991 newborns, but by 2025, that number had fallen to 8,350. The total fertility rate also dropped from 1.7 to 1.1 in the same period. Meanwhile, the natural population decline worsened, quadrupling from –1.7 to –6.9 per 1,000 residents.

The rural population shrank by 9% between 2021 and 2025, falling from 315,900 to 287,300. Migration added to the losses, with a net outflow of 2,218 people in 2025—though experts suggest the real figure could be five to ten times higher. Birth rates among younger women have also collapsed. Nationwide, the rate for those aged 20–24 fell from 80.8 to 40 per 1,000 between 2017 and 2025. In Gomel Oblast, the 20–24 age group once had higher birth rates than women aged 30–34, but by 2025, the trend had reversed. The combination of plummeting births and persistently high death rates has created a 'demographic scissors' effect, widening the gap between generations.

By 2026, Gomel Oblast will face record-low birth rates, with long-term consequences for its workforce and communities. The rapid decline in births, coupled with ongoing migration and rural depopulation, points to a shrinking and ageing population in the years ahead.